Emission Target and Forest Credits

Emissions and Sinks

New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions growth is measured for Kyoto Protocol compliance and is on the increase since 1990 and is calculated to increase over the first five year commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

2006 Results

As at May 2006, New Zealand's net position is projected to be a deficit of 41.2 million units [One emissions unit is equivalent to one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions converted to carbon dioxide equivalents by the global warming potential.] over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The net position is projected to range between a surplus of 1.4 million units under a lower emissions scenario and a deficit of 76.1 million units under a higher emissions scenario.

The May 2006 projection shows a change from previous projections. In May 2005, the most likely estimate for the projected net position was a deficit of 36.2 million units with a high scenario of a deficit of 62.6 million units and a low scenario of a deficit of 11.3 million units. This was updated to a deficit of 64.0 million units in the Crown Accounts in December 2005. The December 2005 interim update reflected the Government's decision not to proceed with the carbon tax (an addition of 13.1 million units) and updated information about landowners deforestation intentions (an addition of 14.7 million units). The improvement to 41.2 million units in the May 2006 projection is caused largely by a significant decrease in projected energy emissions since the December 2005 update due to:

• Emissions from energy (including transport) plus industrial processes are projected to be lower than reported in December 2005 by 14.5 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent during the first commitment period. This reduction in emissions is largely due to increases in expected energy costs. For example, the projected international oil price has been increased from around US$30.00 per barrel in 2005 to US$60.00 per barrel in the 2006 net position report. This increase has caused a significant reduction in emissions projections for transport.
• There have also been some reductions from modelling refinements following a review carried out by AEA Technology and emissions from industry growth is not as strong as in previous projections. These have also lowered energy sector emissions projections.

For further information visit the Ministry for the Environment website

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